One indicator I look at to view the relatively level of oversold is the T2108 included in Worden’s Telechart product.  The T2108 indicator shows the % of NYSE symbols that are above their 40 day MA.  On friday, it had a value of 14.86, it’s lowest reading since May of 2004.

t2108.JPG

Curious as to how these days play out.  I did a quick screen to buy at open the day after the T2108 value is < 15 and then sell 3 days later on the SPY since 1988.
Here are the statistics:

t2108test.JPG

As you can see, 78% of the trades are winners, with an average profit of 1.47% of the next 3 days.  Interestingly enough, the largest loser was not from 9/11, but from 1998 when the credit markets experienced extreme turbulence.  Here’s the chart showing buys and sells from that period and just how steep that 1998 decline was.

1998.JPG

- John


4 Responses to “Extremely oversold”

  1. GHB Says:

    WHERE IS THE FUCKIN CHAT ROOM? YOU GUYS LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY IN THIS MARKET CRASH. HOW ARE THOSE FUTURES SWING LONGS TREATING YOU?

  2. Dave Says:

    Are you serious dude? Take a deep breath…….ok now exhale slowly.

  3. The Trading Digest » Blog Archive » T2108 Trade resuslts Says:

    [...] my post last weekend, I mentioned how the T2108 was < 15 and provide results of a system that bought at [...]

  4. Oversold Says:

    Hi, This is a pretty cool blog on Extremely oversold! Thanks a lot and have fun!

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