This entry was posted on Friday, October 12th, 2007 at 10:22 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
I’m afraid my previous post was not as clear as it could have been. The results of my scan found a long only system that was a consistent loser over a 20 day time period. A system like that is very rare because almost any long only scan you run on the QQQQs is a winner due to the extreme upward bias since the QQQQ’s inception.
Also, when I mentioned establishing positions this morning, what I meant was that even though this scan showed potential trouble ahead for the overall market, no scan would keep me from taking every signal of our swing trading system. The key to system success is taking EVERY signal, whether you like it or not. The 3 positions we established this morning were FSLR, AMZN and GNTX.  Both AMZN and FSLR were up over 3% while GNTX was down 1.5% for a nice gain on today’s new positions.
Here is what my current portfolio looks like
Symbol       % Gain Loss          System
ADCT Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â + 0.55 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
AMZNÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.81Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
EWAÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +16.87Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trend Following
EWHÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +19.47Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trend Following
EWZÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +17.93Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trend Following
FSLRÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +3.37Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
FXIÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +38.62Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trend Following
GLDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +10.27Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trend Following
GNTXÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.53Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
SCHW Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.20Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
VRTXÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -6.83Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
WFMI Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Swing
All these positions are long and overall I’m 85% invested with 15% in cash.
- John
October 13th, 2007 at 8:11 am
So to kind of follow up if the market were to take a fairly harsh pullback many of the trend type entries would likely exit. This would bring your exposure down quickly while the swing system would continue to trade the market.
So the ability to go to cash quickly is systematic in your portfolio. No hemming and hawing over the decision making process. I believe all these trend entries re-entered after the August lows..correct John?
I ask because I run my portfolio a bit differently than John’s.
John maybe we need to do a post on how we piece together all these systems and the type role each plays in each type of trading environment.
October 13th, 2007 at 11:38 am
Exactly Dave. Most of those trend entries entered around the first week or so in Sept and have caught the bulk of the move up in emerging markets. I’ve actually already scaled down the size of my trend component due to the huge gains they’ve already had.
October 21st, 2007 at 9:01 pm
[...] the spirit of my post last week, here’s my updated [...]